$1 could soon be worth €1

It's so close, you can almost taste it.
The U.S. dollar has been powering higher since Donald Trump won the presidential election and the euro has been weakening, putting the two currencies on a collision course. The dollar's 9% move since Election Day means it's now worth €0.96. That's its highest level since 2003

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The trend has led to predictions of parity -- that is, when $1 is worth €1. The last time that happened was 2002.
Adam Slater, the head economist at Oxford Economics, said Thursday that parity could be reached by the end of 2017. Other economists think the key psychological level will be reached even sooner.
Slater said the currency moves are now being driven by divergent monetary policies on either side of the Atlantic Ocean.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is raising interest rates as it sees the American economy improve and expects rising prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has extended its stimulus program and kept interest rates at record lows to support the economy and boost inflation.
Related: Trump may Make Inflation Great Again
Investors are attracted to higher interest rates and stronger economies because they expect a better return on their money, which has pushed up the dollar. Europe is essentially the flip side of the coin.
President-elect Trump is also playing heavily into the currency equation because he's promised to slash taxes and regulations and support infrastructure projects. His policies could create an inflationary environment where the Federal Reserve will have to keep hiking interest rates to keep inflation at bay.
The major shift in these currencies is making European products and travel cheaper for Americans. European exporters, including German auto manufacturers, are expected to benefit.
Germany ships over $125 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually, making it one of America's biggest trading partners..

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Mexico: 'We have a lot of alternatives'

Mexico sent a strong message this week: We have a lot of other friends outside North America.
Officials from Mexico's agriculture ministry brought 17 Mexican companies to Brazil this week to talk about buying more grain, soy and corn in South America. (Mexico is one of the top buyers of US corn.)
Economic Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo announced on Thursday he's taking a trip to China in September.

These moves come amid Trump's hostile messages to Mexico. He's threatened to terminate NAFTA, the free trade deal with Canada and Mexico. Trump also threatened taxes on imports from Mexico and on companies that move jobs to Mexico.
Related: Senate confirms Trump's top NAFTA negotiator
Mexico's travel plans coincide with the US Senate's confirmation of Trump's top NAFTA negotiator on Thursday, setting the stage for NAFTA talks, which should begin in August or September.
"It sends a signal that we have a lot of alternatives," Guajardo said on Thursday about the China trip.
It's not just Brazil and China either. Mexican officials are in "accelerated" trade talks with their counterparts in the European Union to update a trade agreement. They're also meeting with Argentine officials.
"We're prepared, not worried," Raul Urteaga, general coordinator of international affairs for Mexico's agriculture ministry, told CNNMoney from Sao Paulo, Brazil. "We're very interested in opening new markets for our exports and in having reliable trade partners."
Mexican officials stress that they were trying to diversify their economy well before Trump. However, they concede that Trump's election has ramped up the urgency to strengthen trade relationships with other countries.
Related: Trump on NAFTA: 'Will I settle for less than I go in with? Yes'
Still, Mexico heavily depends on the US and pivoting away will be a long-term challenge.
About 80% of Mexico's exports go to the US, and millions of Mexicans living in the US provide a key source of income -- remittances -- to mostly low-income friends and relatives in Mexico. Hundreds of companies have operations on both sides of the border -- a result of NAFTA, which became law in 1994.
For its part, about 6 million US jobs also depend on trade with Mexico, according to the US Chamber of Commerce.
Those ties are under siege in the Trump era. Other countries see an opportunity and are welcoming Mexico with open arms.
"That is a great opportunity to turn around and look a bit more to South America," Argentina President Mauricio Macri told CNN in April. "This shows that it's better to keep and to deepen relationships with many other countries."

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Old-guard retail back in the cross hairs

A glance at the U.S. stock market's main live for the health of outlets suggests all is well among those firms within the business of merchandising stuff on to shoppers.

After all, the $1.16 trillion S&P five hundred retail index .SPXRT has climbed nearly thirteen p.c this year to a record high, roughly double the seven p.c gain by the complete S&P five hundred .SPX.

That stalwart performance, however, has been delivered virtually entirely by a clutch of latest 'retailers' that currently account for quite 1/2 the worth of the index: Amazon.com Iraqi National Congress (AMZN.O), Netflix Iraqi National Congress (NFLX.O) and Priceline cluster Iraqi National Congress (PCLN.O). Moreover, it masks a broad slump in shares of ancient retailers having their lunch eaten up by disrupters like Amazon above all.

In fact, once the retail index's massive 3 gainers ar excluded, the group's mixture worth has gained a lackluster one.3 p.c this year and is a few eight p.c keep of its watermark 2 years agone.

Against that scenery, next week brings a contemporary check out however that sect of retail is holding up and whether or not a turn-around within their drooping share performance may be in the offing.

First-quarter earnings reports from Macy's Iraqi National Congress (M.N), Nordstrom Iraqi National Congress (JWN.N), Kohl's corporation (KSS.N) and JCPenney Co Iraqi National Congress (JCP.N) ar expected to be serious, however may shed some lightweight on whether or not painful turn-around plans launched by a number of them, together with thousands of layoffs, ar commencing to bear fruit.

Overall company earnings for the primary quarter are sturdy, with growth for the complete S&P five hundred pegged at fourteen.7 p.c from a year earlier, the most effective since 2011, per Thomson Reuters information. however the patron discretionary sector .SPLRCD, which incorporates the shops, is predicted to indicatesimply three.9 p.c growth, albeit that's up from associate calculable one.4 p.c a month agone.

"The client for the foremost half appears OK. Not everyplace," aforesaid Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategian at Citigroup.

But sales ar expected to be middling for the outlet chain names. Analysts caution, however, that ancient retailers might now not be a real live of client health as individuals have new ways that to pay.

"There can in all probability be a knee-jerk reaction the incorrect means once we hear a number of those larger retailers embark and say traffic within the mall is terrible," aforesaid Art Hogan, chief strategian at Wunderlich Securities in ny.

"Hopefully we do not begin presumptuous that as a result of individuals are not getting to Macy's the patron is dead."

Far from it. The government's main live of the health of client disbursement, the monthly retail sales report due out Friday, is predicted to indicate overall retail sales snapped back in Gregorian calendar month once 2 straight declines.

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